This note is published. Edit Note
Background and Early Days
65% of US Deaths occurred in 8 states (Ranked 8 highest Deaths out of all 50). Almost 40% of all cases likely emanated from NYC (run by DeBlasio and Cuomo). Think about this for a minute. All states on this list are Blue (Defined by Governor), except Massachusetts (Technically a Republican Governor - but very Liberal). This list excludes 3 of the biggest 7 states by population (FL(3), TX(2), OH(7) - all of which are Red). They didn't have enough deaths to make the cut! They have huge Metropolitan cities also.
NB - Below, I illustrate several examples using a ‘rolling’ Case Fatality Rate(CFR), which snapshots New Cases against New Deaths at a given point in time - based on a 7 Day Moving Average(7DMA). It is true that actual Deaths are attributed to Cases identified several weeks earlier, but because I am using this for relative time comparisons, the result still compares Apples to Apples.
The body count came EARLY (Apr & May). At the peak (April 21), almost 2800 people were dying daily. MOST of them came from LTC - and MOST of them were over 80. On the same date that Deaths spiked to 2,749, New Daily Cases hit 26k (They are currently averaging over 51k). As can be seen on this chart Average Daily Deaths (517) are at the lowest since March, and also 81% lower than the peak! Let me repeat: Daily Cases are DOUBLE, but Daily Deaths are down 81%! The Daily Case Fatality Rate is down a whopping 91% since April 21. Were you aware?
Daily Case Fatality Rate(CFR) - Apr 21 = 10.6%
Daily Case Fatality Rate(CFR) - July 5 = 1.0%
Something isn’t working as we have been led to believe. Most people SHOULD agree, but unfortunately, many will not allow themselves to question anything they have seen in the News...My advice, believe your own eyes, and believe the raw data. Do not blindly believe the media manipulated narratives we see every day. They are very much in conflict - which I will demonstrate with Facts and Data.
Many of these 8 States forced COVID+ patient into LTC facilities, thereby accelerating the spread among Care Workers and then to other Residents. If this wasn’t intentional (it was, because there were State Executive Orders issued in March), then this was insanely negligent and it was also unnecessary; because the Federal Government provided field hospitals and even Navy Hospital Ships (NYC & LA) by late March - to handle any surge (10’s of thousands of equipped beds and 10’s of thousands of Ventilators). The Army also sent thousands of Medics to assist in running these field hospitals. The Federal Government also flooded the entire country with PPE in a relatively short period of time. Unfortunately, Governors made little use of these facilities and never needed many additional Ventilators. Hospital staff were even caught selling PPE out of the back door! They could have sent patients suffering from COVID into these Field Hospitals, vs. sending them back into LTC facilities. Sadly, this was like throwing a fragmentation grenade into each of these facilities. It has recently been revealed that NY State sent 6,000 COVID+ patients into LTC facilities. A few other Democrat governors did the same... Are you outraged yet?
This early data really helped drive fear and the resulting lockdown compliance. We all lived it, we all complied. This is just a fact. 15 days to slow the spread morphed into 45 then 100+...and here we are. How could lockdowns have served any political purpose? Most people’s first reaction is to dismiss any possible malfeasance. However, this is the main question people ask - as they travel down this rabbit hole. I have a lot to say on this subject, but that is for my next article! One bi-product of the lockdowns, we never got to see the cases run their course OUTSIDE of these 8 states. However, the other 42 states handled the initial surge quite well (as evidenced by the fact that even to this day - they only represent 35% of the total Deaths). Regardless, they all (90%) locked down anyway because they feared the same fate as these 8. Until recently, I never fully understood what the implications of this pressure to lock down were. But then the lightbulb went off, and I can now see it all VERY CLEARLY.
Re-Opening
As we all remember, the Democrats and the Media took a firm position against ANY re-opening effort. We all watched the nightly briefings with reporters shouting rude ‘gotcha’ questions. We saw the talking heads on TV and the hundreds of articles in our major newspapers, Tweets, FB posts, etc. It is all on record. However, in Mid-April, when the Coronavirus Task Force came out with a Phased Plan, which was sanctioned by all of the top US Health officials, they begrudgingly accepted that the lockdown was doomed. When they expressed opposition, they didn’t seem to care about the Societal and Economic impact, they just wanted everything to remain SHUT. Why would they want the economy to fail? Why would they want the people to suffer? Remember that the lockdown orders were NOT Federal, they were done at State level, under Federal guidance. The Governors OWN THIS.
I recall when Georgia re-opened, there was incredible controversy over which businesses should open. The media pounded the Governor and the President over Hair Salons and Tattoo parlors, among other things. They wanted to pick everything apart - in an effort to keep economic output as low as possible, for as long as possible.
When the first economic data came in post-lockdown, the media took glee in telling us how many people were unemployed because of the President - singularly. Wait, didn’t we all lock down? Like every Nation on earth??? They touted unemployment rates of 20%+ and 40MM+ unemployed. The real figures never came close. In fact the past 2 months the ‘consensus’ was off by 10MM and 3MM respectively, and both numbers were ALL TIME HIGHS. It is true April was the worst in history - but the economy was SHUT DOWN. The current Unemployment rate is 11.1% - which is around 7.5% higher than the pre-COVID low, but damn good considering most of the US is still on some form of lockdown, and the government has been helping workers throughout the crisis. Meaning, there is a lot more room to recover! I follow economics very closely, and I cannot believe how happy the media was when the economy was tanking, and how miserable they are now that things are recovering FAR faster and stronger than anyone ever anticipated. That is very telling, and you know exactly why...As an aside, Wall St. typically never gets it wrong, so follow the market! In Feb-Mar Wall St. was as clueless as anyone, so panic ensued. Then the truth began to rear its head, and here we are.
Testing
Several of those states (Outside of the top 8) re-opened in early May. Since they handled the initial outbreak so well, they were in a position to be rewarded with an earlier re-opening than the Blue states(namely the 8 above).
New Cases are now rising FAST, as testing rises FAST. The US has now tested almost 40MM people and are testing at a rate of almost 700k/day - which is rising by the week. These numbers are impressive by any standard. Ignoring per capita stats for a moment, you need actual supplies and personnel to facilitate all of these tests. It is a lot! This was a novel virus, and the public health labs could never have handled this type of volume, or even 10% of this volume. However, this was always how testing was done. That is why the US Administration partnered with 3rd party labs back in January to develop several new testing technologies, that could be rolled out quickly, and on a mass scale. The media narrative was always that testing was terrible. I suspect the Democrats and Media never in a million years thought the Government could ramp up testing as fast as they did. You don’t hear them criticizing anymore, because that would call attention to the incredible job done. However, in the end, it was testing that doomed their narrative. This is because we now see a more accurate denominator (Identified Infections). Antibody Serological testing has shown that the total Infection numbers we see are probably off by a factor of 10-20x. Think of the implication of this on the Fatality Rate!(takes it down 90-95%)
153k people were tested on April 21, making the positivity rate 17%
653k people were tested on July 6, making the positivity rate 7.9%
The lower positivity rate we are seeing now, is consistent with more testing. More testing of people without symptoms should pick up more Asymptomatic cases, but it also shows that more of the people being tested are NOT infected. The Graphs below illustrate this phenomenon quite clearly.
Cases are also rising fast, because younger people are going back to work - and must be tested as part of the Government recommended Phase 2 Plan. This results in catching many Asymptomatic cases that never would have been caught otherwise. Did Asymptomatic cases exist in April, and May? Only a fool would think NOT. They did, but we never knew. Back then, mainly Healthcare Workers, Sick and Elderly were being tested, thus, the higher Positivity rate. Therefore, they never got counted in the Denominator (Cases). The result was a far higher Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - MORE FEAR, MORE PANIC. Helpful if you wish to present that narrative, isn’t it?
Many Blue states that have not gone to Phase 2 are still not doing mass community testing. 4 Red states in particular (FL,TX, AZ, GA) are really ramping up new cases - with average ages of infection plummeting, as are Deaths & CFR...In Florida, the average age of a positive test is under 33 - before Phase 1 it was 60! This was a fact the media clearly didn't want us to know. They wanted the scary high death rate. I’ve already demonstrated that by identifying more cases today, we are bringing down the CFR massively. Isn't this good news? The media is ONLY reporting the Cases, and relying on our own past knowledge of how this all went in Apr & May to fill in the blanks (this is a lie by omission). That would lead most to assume, that with 50k New Cases, 5k people will die per day! Meanwhile, the CFR in the US is plummeting to among the lowest on the planet. Might we have wanted to know this information in April or May?
For those that deny the US has ramped up testing (because that is what the Media keeps telling us), please take a look at this Graph.
Hospitalizations
I know what most of you are now thinking. Deaths lag New Cases. That is factually correct. However, what is NOT correct is that Cases necessarily result in Death! I believe I have demonstrated this above.
The next thing you are thinking is that you are hearing Hospitalizations are through the roof in several states, and thus, Deaths will come soon. Many of my peers have responded to my prior analysis with that very statement(and they seemed so gleefully certain). The media has been telling us this for the past few weeks. Guess what? I have some GREAT news for you. The Media is telling us the truth, but NOT the whole truth. Hospitalizations are up across the states that have re-opened to Phase 2. Do you want to know why? Because they were mainly closed for over 2 months! US Hospitals are for profit and they tend to run at 95% capacity. Reading Texas hospital data tells us that they are running near the expected 95% level - but only 15-20% of their patients are COVID. I think hospital capacity rates are far lower in Canada, as there is no profit motive (no shareholders to please). As part of the Phased reopening, Hospitalizations have surged, as people who went months without Treatments, Checkups, Testing, etc. flooded back into the hospitals.
Shame on the media for telling us about the surge, but not telling us why. Such deceptive trickery! The number we want to see is COVID hospitalizations. I should also note that Hospitals are now testing EVERYONE that is admitted. Thus, they tend to catch more COVID+ cases that would never have been caught (including Asymptomatic ones). If you come in with a broken leg, and test positive with no symptoms, but have to be laid up for a few days - they count you as a COVID+ Hospitalization! This is consistent with the way they count COVID Deaths, which clearly makes the Death stats inflated as well. I can add a bit of hospital data to this picture for you - using Arizona and Florida as examples. The media keeps sharing horror stories about them - of course with no evidence, just gaslighting.
Arizona @ July 6:
Total % of COVID patients were 5%, down from 11% on June 11.
During that period, COVID cases spiked by 225%!
Florida @ July 5:
Hospital Bed Capacity was down only 6% in one month.
ICU Bed Capacity was down only 8% in one month
During that period, COVID cases spiked by 236%!
When you see the media showing you one or 2 scary anecdotal stories about a hospital here or one there - where they are overwhelmed. Take it with a grain of salt, and go study the wider data for yourself (or come ask me).
Deaths
I tackled this above, but wanted to provide some more concrete examples. I will use Florida, since it is currently experiencing the largest ‘outbreak’ in the US.
Above, I mentioned the Daily CFR for the entire US is down 91% to 1.0%. However, now that we know that Florida hospitalizations are only up 6% in a month, we shouldn’t be surprised to see that Deaths are also way lower than we would expect, and they're not expected to rise significantly. After all, hospitalizations are a leading indicator of Death. I will use the 7 Day Moving Average to compare Deaths/New Cases. That will give me a Daily CFR. I will use the same Reference date as the April 21 US Peak in Daily Infections. Notable that Daily Cases have increased by 845%, yet Daily Deaths are COMPLETELY FLAT! I would note that at its peak, NY was seeing almost 1000 Deaths per Day!
April 21 - CFR - 43/892 = 4.8%
July 5 - CFR - 44/8,434 = 0.52%
DOES THIS MAKE ANY SENSE??
Wait a minute! The Media keeps telling me that EVERYONE is very sick in Florida, from this massive OUTBREAK!!! Someone I know asked me if I would visit Florida now, if I could...insinuating it is like the 7th level of hell! The same media is telling us that the US has the crappiest testing in the world. Do you see how they lie coming and going? What is truly going on here? Hopefully you are starting to get the picture!
Antibody Testing
Now that I’ve got your attention, I want to make you feel even better about things. You see, that current 7DMA CFR(US 1.0%, FL 0.52%) is likely overstated by a magnitude of 10! That would put the National figure @ 0.1%(Same as Influenza - which HAS a Vaccine), and Florida @ 0.05%. I am going to assume the real number is closer to Florida, because they have apparently done things the right way - as evidenced by their low CFR and low Deaths. Only 3,800 people have died in Florida since this all began. They are the 3rd largest state, with a population of 22MM (Larger than NY). Yet, Florida has experienced 88% less Deaths! Didn’t the people on TV tell me that Governor Cuomo was the greatest Governor of all time? The numbers, coupled with his despicable actions do not support this narrative...clearly.
Evidence of the Antibody testing can be found in many places. Testing has taken place all over the US and Europe. These figures are easily obtainable from some State Health sites, and wider Academic research studies. Random Anti-body testing can easily be extrapolated. Dr. Birx has even stated this. They show anywhere from 5x-20x more infections than have been recorded by PCR testing. That means the Denominator has been wrong all along, which of course made this seem far more fatal than it is. The media took glee in pounding that narrative into our psyche.
The former FDA director stated yesterday that he believes we only detected 1/20 cases at the peak and 1/12 cases at present.
Therapeutics
Whenever there was talk of a new Therapeutic drug, the Media tore it apart, namely Hydroxychloroquine. I discussed this in an April article. There were anecdotal reports coming from all over the world, from actual Physicians who were treating thousands of their patients - with incredible results. However, when the President began touting it (to give people hope), the Media and prominent Democrats went on a smear campaign to demonize it. Then a few flawed studies came out - which were later discredited. However, the media never told you that part, after the fact. Nobody ever knew the truth. This drug has been safely used for 65 years for various conditions. It has been rated safe for long term use by the FDA, and the irony is that the recommended course for COVID is only a few days - yet people take this safely for YEARS. Finally, we get a major clinical study publish results in Michigan, and lo and behold, it is a miracle drug. Fatalities were cut by MORE than 50%!!!
Why was the media so against a cure? Why did they tell us it would literally KILL you if you took it (despite it having to be prescribed by a doctor). They didn’t want the deaths to slow down! They wanted maximum damage...and you know why. The thing is, since Trump introduced us to this drug, over 120k people have died. It is conceivable that as many as 60k lives may have been saved, had the media not gone on this crusade. You may say, well, doctors could have still prescribed it. Potentially true, except many governors (especially in the hardest hit states) made it illegal to prescribe it Off-Label for COVID use. Doctors stopped prescribing it, and patients were too frightened to try it because of the media crusade. The Governors and the Media and anyone else who bashed this drug - without evidence - have blood on their hands! This is UNFORGIVABLE! You can view these hateful tweets for yourself.
Other therapeutics have also been shown to work quite well, such as:
Convalescent Plasma (Note that more cases identified means more of this on hand)
Remdesivir
Dexamethasone
I think we can safely assume that we now have far more treatment options available that can save many more lives - thus, another factor in reducing future deaths, and more importantly, reducing our fear.
Final Thoughts
In my opinion, based on my analysis, and using my logic, this was ALL by design. Not necessarily the outbreak itself (we can get to China another time), but how it was communicated to us from the outset. Fear is a powerful motivator. There were dark forces who worked hard to push a false narrative from day 1.
The early fatalities were certainly helped via the LTC policy of a few Governors.
Classification of a COVID Death has long been debated, but we can probably all agree that they are likely overstated. There were also many anecdotal stories of doctors being pressured to write COVID as cause of Death after the fact. Did you know that Medicare pays the State $5k for Pneumonia treatment, but $13k for COVID treatment, or $39k if they die! I’d say there is an incentive to code COVID Deaths. When you think about it, they are already deceased, so who does it hurt (perhaps only all of us, who have to endure 24/7 fear porn using inaccurate data, or the US government who is footing the bill)
Less early testing, prevented us from knowing just how pervasive this virus was.
Therapeutics will cut the Death rate dramatically moving forward.
Protecting the vulnerable population is a must - and the US has done a very good job of this since May.
The June ‘Protests’ certainly didn’t help curtail the recent spike in cases. Neither did the hypocrisy from the Media and the Democrats. The political undertones of these protests certainly favored one party over the other! I just find it really interesting that many First Amendment rights were suspended in various states, with only ONE exception. I don’t believe the Bill of Rights names any exceptions to the First Amendment!
Unintended consequences, such as postponement of medical care, economic and psychologic damage can lead to poverty, poor health, and even death. We have likely done more harm than good in recent months.
I predict several Red states are well on their way to Herd immunity, which has worked quite well in Sweden(despite the lies from the media). They never locked down, and they have had only 5500 deaths - most of which were LTC in the early days (3k prior to May). They have around 5 people per day dying. What you need to know about Herd immunity, is that as you build closer to it, the virus spreads slower, resulting in less deaths - the curve flattens itself. Again, don’t take my word for it - look at the Sweden data yourself!(Graph below)
The Rabbit Hole (only the entrance)
The Democrats and Media wanted permanent lockdowns, only to lift them in the fall - so Cases would swell into the election - creating panic and fear. They have been talking about a 2nd wave for months(setting the stage), but we never finished the first wave, we merely flattened the curve for a while, so we could prepare to deal with this virus better. The experts all knew things would flare up again, when we exited lockdown. If I knew, they should damn well know! Remember, there is no Vaccine! By Fall, the economy would have been completely destroyed - beyond repair for decades. The spiking cases (without the knowledge of the plummeting CFR that we are now aware of) would re-stoke fear and everyone would punish Trump for mishandling it. The election would then happen, everyone would realize that Deaths and Hospitalizations didn't do what they expected, and the Pandemic would be over - except with Joe Biden heading to the White House...
As demonstrated above, a few Red States have destroyed this plan. The veil is now lifted - far earlier than the people who peddled this fear campaign ever anticipated. Now it is up to you to not just accept what I have said, but regard what you see with a more critical eye moving forward. To discount motives, after what we have all lived through - would be quite naïve.
I will have more to say on why the Media did what they did in another article...
To quote the X Files: "The Truth Is Out There"
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