This past week was a major turning point in our understanding of this Pandemic, and the resulting facts that have emerged – including the severely flawed models we have been glued to for the past month. I will begin with the negative and then address the positive (which is really not being conveyed by conventional media or our governments – in any meaningful way). Here are some of the main fear narratives that I want to address.
70-80% of the world will become infected.
The Healthcare system cannot cope with this pandemic.
There is no PPE, Ventilators or Hospital Beds
Mortality rates could be as high as 10%.
Younger people are just as susceptible as the elderly or those with comorbidities
We need to be locked down until a Vaccine is available
Hydroxychloroquine will kill everyone, and nobody should attempt to use it.
We all know that every one of these narratives have been peddled by the mainstream media (MSM). We have seen it in our Twitter & FB feeds, as well as our newspapers and nightly news. We have also seen these narratives peddled by our own leaders and scientific advisors. Must we believe it all unconditionally? Especially when the real data isn’t matching up?
If you look at the above points, they paint a very dire picture. A picture that makes us feel frightened and helpless. Except the government is telling us that we are in fact empowered – because only we can ‘flatten the curve’ by Sheltering in Place. I would note that Sheltering in Place is a severe form of social distancing, but social distancing presents a wide spectrum of possible behaviors. Most of which are not even being tabled by our government. I am not going to delve into the economic situation (I will save that for my next article!), however, everything we are doing now has a major impact on the future of our global economy. Essentially, it means that we must weigh all Pros and Cons to the actions we take now. Considerations must transcend the virus itself – as economic fallout dramatically impacts public health as well!
Can we trust the data?
Thus far, the highest infection rate of any nation with a significantly large population is <0.4%. By Comparison, the US is at 0.15% and Canada 0.06%. Does this mean that 80% of the population can’t ultimately get infected? I am not an epidemiologist, but I think it is always possible that left to its own devices, a respiratory virus can expose itself to almost every person on earth. The statistics are not bearing this out, however. Many countries have already peaked and are rapidly descending their curves – with total infections way under 1%.
Mortality rates are all over the place. Generally, between 1-10%. The variance in these mortality rates are somewhat inexplicable, but they raise many questions, which also call into question the infection rates themselves.
Why is there a 10-fold disparity in both infection and mortality rates across the Globe?
Testing – It is likely that the nations with higher mortality rates are only testing the most severe cases, and really aren’t identifying any mild or asymptomatic cases.
Quality of Care – Many nations may lack the resources – both human, and technological to properly treat patients.
Demographics – Perhaps this is due to some nations being less healthy, older, or those citizens having higher co-morbidity rates. Tragically, the CDC has just this week suggested that certain minority groups are more predisposed to acute COVID19 complications vs. others. This was explained as being correlated to higher comorbidities. Whether these comorbidities are cultural or genetic is yet to be suggested. But it is an acknowledgement that different people from different groups, tend to get sicker than others. This is not an equal opportunity killer. That said it was also identified that some minorities may have higher infection rates as well, due to the fact they tend to live in larger urban centres, with higher density. This is in addition to the fact that many work jobs that can’t be done from home – so they are especially exposed during this period of time - as they can’t always Shelter in Place. The CDC has also suggested that smokers are more prone to acute COVID19 attacks. Despite the fear tactics of reporting on the odd case of someone under 25 succumbing to COVID19, there is really no data to support that this is a statistically significant event. There was even a report of a baby in Connecticut who allegedly died of COVID19. The real story was that he suffered a fatal accident at home, and just happened to test positive. Thus, they politicized it as a COVID death. That also brings up another fact – that the CDC is reporting anyone who dies WITH COVID19 died OF COVID19 - regardless of the circumstances of their death. This would tend to inflate the mortality numbers.
I read reporting out of Germany today:
“A new study released this week in Germany shows the mortality rate of the coronavirus factoring in the asymptomatic cases is much lower than is being reported. The German study found that around 15% of the population in the Gangelt had the coronavirus antibodies and were infected at some point. Using this data the researchers concluded that the coronavirus mortality rate was 0.37%.”
I also read a report out of Stanford University last week essentially suggesting the same thing:
“Recent research is telling us that up to 50% of those infected are asymptomatic, and of the remaining 50%, 80% have mild symptoms and are unlikely to have been tested. This creates a confirmation bias because we are only testing those with the most severe symptoms. Drs. Ioannidis, Bhattacharya and Bendavid believe that the actual number of cases is very likely off by an order of magnitude of 10, or maybe even many times more. “
Recently published from a Chicago Study:
“At a hospital in Chicago, a non-randomized sample found that 30-50% of patients tested for COVID-19 have antibodies in their system, suggesting they already had the virus and have potential immunity. A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday.”
Models
I address models in other sections of this article, however, it should be pointed out that the original US projections from the Imperial College modelling showed 1.5-2.2MM deaths. Last week, Trump’s team unveiled new models from IHME – which showed 100-240k deaths. Within days, these figures were whittled down to 80k then to 60k. Why the disparity? Well the original figures – that the government reacted to on Mar 6 – set in motion mass hysteria and panic that led to the severe shelter in place measures we have all now undertaken. The later IHME model was supposed to factor in intense mitigation. That essentially means far more than we are actually doing – yet, the real data is not bearing that out – the numbers are dropping like a rock. It should also be noted that Imperial College figures were dramatically reduced after a few weeks – with very little explanation as to why. Is there any accountability for these huge discrepancies? After all, our lives and livelihoods are at stake!
My 2 cents is that a message needed to be sent to frighten everyone into compliance. This message of course, originated from the CCP controlled WHO. Was there a motive? Time will tell...
Why should we trust ANY of these models? Furthermore, why should we trust scientific models at all? Even Dr. Fauci admits that they are not very valuable, as they “are really only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model”. Can data be manipulated to set a narrative? YOU BET YOUR ASS IT CAN!
Shortages
We have heard the media ad-nauseum, tell us every day that there are no Masks, Gowns, Gloves, Ventilators or Beds. We have also been told that hospitals are overflowing. This is largely fakenews – as many of the demands are predicated on general projections that suggest future needs – most of these projection have been proven to be radically incorrect. There may be temporary shortages in certain highly infected areas – but are those really a function of not having proper PPE, or rather that the PPE is just too scattered across areas that have little need for them right now. I would tend to think that is the logical reality. I have also read reports that lots of shipments of PPE have gone missing – hospital staff, thieving profiteers, etc.
Several MSM outlets have shared stories of alleged hospital workers crying about shortages – and suggesting this is widespread. One in particular was an Instagram model who suffered from mental illness – and she was caught in her vicious lie – CBS news sugar coated it, but didn’t fully withdraw their fraudulent story. Another story aired on CBS and featured an overrun hospital that was allegedly in NYC, the only problem was that it was footage of an Italian hospital. CBS then made up some excuse about an ‘editing error’ – but a few days later – showed the same footage AGAIN out of context! Stories like these are meant to illustrate a narrative that the Federal response has been incompetent. On the other side of the equation, we are seeing many US hospitals that are completely empty – many of them are furloughing employees. It would appear that everyone (who isn’t suffering from COVID19) is either too afraid or not allowed to come to the hospital for treatments. Furthermore, I would think that trauma related issues are likely down in a massive way – due to nobody driving, riding, playing sports, etc. Workplace accidents must be way down also. I saw a stat that total mortality in March was down dramatically.
A great example of over-demanding is NY State. Governor Cuomo pleaded on camera that he was being woefully under-served by the Federal government - because they refused to give into his demand for 40k Ventilators. The Feds told him those figures were not close to accurate, but he argued and whined nonetheless. As of this week, peak projected Ventilator needs for NY are 5k. How could Cuomo have been off by 88%???? He, along with the MSM bashed the Trump administration for weeks – and established a MSM narrative that the Federal Government was doing nothing. Cuomo also complained that he had a lack of hospital beds and physicians. In a short period of time, Trump built 8 temporary hospitals and medical centres for him – representing thousands of extra beds – he sent a massive Navy Medical ship in mere days (when it would usually take 4 weeks to prep). This ship, the USNS Comfort can accommodate 1k patients. The Federal government also sent 3k military medical personnel to aid the state – who claimed to be lacking medical personnel. This doesn’t even begin to describe the massive efforts made around the entire US - similar actions, on a smaller scale.
Other states, like California, have praised the Trump administration for their herculean efforts to mobilize so fast – but admit that they are in good shape and likely oversupplied on all fronts. Several states are returning equipment back to the Federal stockpile for use by states more in need.
The truth is that the US Federal Government effort has been nothing short of miraculous. They have serviced needs down to the county and hospital level – with surgical precision and in real time. They have utilized the Army Corps of Engineers, FEMA, and Private Enterprise to facilitate this response. They have also tested 2.5MM people, and the next closest country has tested less than half as many. The US has also perfected a rapid 5min test which will have massive implication for the recovery effort. Many nations are requesting this technology from the US - and Trump has offered to share it. Here in Canada, we have seen nothing that comes close in terms of our response. It has been quite muted – but then again, we don’t have any significant hot spots yet. Hopefully that will continue.
Fun Fact: With all the griping about Ventilator shortages, did you know that there are approximately 140k Ventilators in the US – and the Federal Government keeps a strategic stockpile of approximately 20k (they are now using the DPA to manufacture 100k more!). The current projected peak Ventilator need in the entire country is only 15k! That means that the US has the capacity for almost 10x more peak cases. Is that possible, sure – but the short-term panic was dramatically overplayed. Was the griping political? – 100%.
Treatments
Vaccines
We have recently heard disturbing reports from people such as Bill Gates and our Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Tam – that NOTHING will be changing until we have a Vaccine. Justin Trudeau parroted this yesterday. Effectively, saying this is the new normal – get used to it. Given that most vaccines take 5-8yrs to develop and test – this is untenable. Bill Gates has been lobbying hard for a 2+yr LOCKDOWN. I should add that this is consistent with the WHO narrative. The same WHO – who just this week advocated going door to door to rip infected people from their homes (there is video of this statement) – to be taken into Government Quarantine. This would include our young children and elderly parents. George Orwell is now defining our reality!
So what do we do in the absence of a vaccine? Can we stay locked away for years or even months? The answer is NO. Is the only answer FULL LOCKDOWN, or is there another way?
Therapeutics
This is a topic that I have developed a strong passion for. Since before President Trump tweeted about Hydroxychloroquine(HCQ), I had been hearing reports of its miraculous efficacy. Then he sent out the infamous tweet and all hell broke loose. The media instantly began bashing it without evidence. AG William Barr described it this way - “the media has been on a jihad to discredit the drug. It’s quite strange.” I really cannot describe the situation any better myself.
Here are the real facts on Hydroxychloroquine…as we know them today.
This drug has been FDA approved since 1955 for various applications. Namely Malaria, Lupus & Arthritis. 10’s of millions of people have taken this drug globally. Billions of doses.
A Top Rheumatologist in the US - Dr. Daniel Wallace (foremost expert on HCQ) - says the drug is 100% safe, he has never had a single complication (aside from benign side effects) using it on his Lupus patients for 42 years. NO patient has ever needed EKG monitoring, and monitoring is NOT indicated by the FDA. The sudden heart attack risk that you are hearing about is fakenews propaganda.
If you look on any medical website – you will find a list of benign side effects. NO serious side effects whatsoever. Also no significant short term side effects are indicated. Heart issues are not listed at all – despite the media propaganda saying otherwise.
The 5 day dosage indicated for COVID19 is 2400mg – whereas the indicated dosage for Lupus is more than double over the same time period 6000mg.
Cost <0.10/pill. Not under patent - anyone can produce it.
The technical mode of action for Coronavirus is that it effectively slows down the replication of the virus. HCQ makes the cell wall permeable to Zinc. Zinc reduces RNA replication within the cell. If you slow down the replication of the virus – you buy the immune system time to defeat the virus by itself. There is beyond anecdotal evidence that this is working. There have been various limited studies conducted in Korea, China, France and now the US. The dissenters will say that most of these foreign studies are not controlled. However, the French doctor - Dr. Didier Raoult - that has now treated over 1000 patients – with only 7 fatalities – suggests that controlled trials are unethical. Effectively, you are allowing half your patients to potentially die, when it seems certain that this treatment has at least some efficacy – and thus provides a better chance of avoiding death than doing nothing. It should be noted that Dr. Raoult also has decades of experience with HCQ.
In addition to this, there are stories of many US based doctors using this on a slew of their COVID19 patients with miraculous results. Are they all lying? I highly doubt it. These are physicians, not journalists. Besides, I typically see a few patient testimonials each day. There are also some ‘doctors’ that come on MSM outlets suggesting this drug is like cyanide and will kill you instantly. [They tried to peddle this very lie when some idiotic couple in Arizona consumed Fish Tank Cleaner that contained a similar sounding chemical. That story actually had some legs! Propaganda works!] These doctors have no experience with the drug and have no experience using it for COVID19. They are simply confirming the MSM narrative for a paycheque IMHO. In the reporting that is out there - of those that take a set regimen of HCQ + Zinc prior to acute Pneumonia – most people are being found to recover BEFORE reaching the acute Pneumonia phase of the infection. It should also be noted that <50% of those who are intubated and put on a ventilator actually survive. This means that if you are going to take your chances letting the virus run it course and it continues to advance to the acute stage – the survival rate is grim. Why would we not want to try a harmless drug that can reduce the odds of acute infection??? At the very least, this should be used for those that have the highest risk factors for severe COVID19 infection. The good news is that thousands of patients are now in clinical trials in the US, and some hospitals in Canada are also reportedly near clinical testing as well. For those that are more severely advanced, Dr. Raoult suggested using Azithromycin, as this helps to alleviate any secondary lung infections that can complicate the fight against COVID19. This may in fact have some very rare cardiac implications, which a physician needs to monitor - however, if the alternative is intubation - I think many would take the risk!
There is also anecdotal reporting that taking HCQ before infection can work as a prophylactic – effectively allowing your body to fight the virus better before it can take a firm hold and advance to even mild symptoms. It would be a game changer for front line health care workers and first responders. This application is also undergoing trials in the US as we speak. Back to the Rheumatologist referenced above – he said that of his patients – not a single one has been infected with COVID19, that revelation isn’t that valuable – BUT – it brings up an interesting thought. What if every single person in the US who takes this drug is contacted to see if they have been infected with Coronavirus? That is 100’s of thousands of people. Wouldn’t that tell us something quite valuable about prophylactic use?
Also, it is interesting to note that many sub-Saharan countries that commonly use Chloroquine(HCQ’s precurser) for Malaria are seeing very tiny infection rates.
We are racing the clock – with each day – thousands more are dying, and if this is in fact the best solution, it is malpractice, and frankly a crime against humanity to not let patients have it. It is a further crime for the MSM to peddle lies, fear and propaganda to scare the public into ignoring their own physicians’ advice regarding this treatment – just because they hate the President! This week a middle-aged Democrat State Assemblywoman from Michigan credited this very treatment, and namely Donald Trump for saving her life. You won’t hear about this on CNN or MSNBC, but it really happened. If you want more miraculous success stories, DM me, and I will point you to the right resources to find them.
Today, Gov Cuomo of NY reported that NET ICU admissions were negative. That means that despite adding a record 10k new cases – and with their curve on the rise – there were more people discharged from the ICU than admitted. I have a theory that this may be the result of the clinical trials of HCQ in the state - which began well over a week ago. Meaning less people are advancing to the ICU. If I am proven right, Donald Trump may well have saved the entire planet. I hold out hope that this will turn out to be true – and that would stand even if this was to the credit of Justin Trudeau!
Future Direction
To hear the MSM and our PM – there is NO other way forward except Sheltering in Place for many months or even years. However, if you listen to President Trump, he is attempting to paint a picture of what a transitory period may look like. The CDC announced new workplace guidelines this week – that left me feeling very hopeful that there is in fact another path.
In addition to modifying many ways that we work and interact in society – there is also testing. With widely available Serological testing, we can measure if people possess the antibody for Coronavirus, and if so – they should be able to return to work – without safeguards. Furthermore, mass surveillance testing for the virus itself will give us a better picture of who has this, and finally confirm the ‘denominator’ required to get to the correct mortality rate. Could it be under 1%? Could it be 0.1% (like the flu)? If so, in retrospect, what a dreadful mistake we have made! The nations of the world really had no other choice though. China and the WHO stonewalled us on disclosure - we were flying totally blind for many precious weeks. We either let this unknown, invisible enemy ravage our populations or we shut things down so we can derive more information and make a more applicable decision. We chose the latter path, but I don’t believe it was a long-term solution - it was an unprecedented knee-jerk reaction. We need a proper plan to get back to normal – even if it is a new normal for a while.
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